The Story of The Hot Hand: Powerful Myth or Powerless Critique?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Thomas Gilovich and Amos Tversky famously claimed that the belief in the Hot Hand in basketball is a cognitive illusion, an instance of the belief in the Law of Small Numbers. They supported this claim with a variety of orthodox statistical tests failing to show any clear evidence of a Hot Hand phenomenon. These researchers neglected to perform any power analysis on this test. Here we show that their belief in having demonstrated the illusory status of the Hot Hand is itself an illustration of the Law of Small Numbers.
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